Transition - Forest of Dean - Key concepts

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Peak oil
Unlike water wells, oil wells are not refilled by recurring processes. They were filled once and any oil removed is gone for ever. At some point each well will be empty but leading up to that point it gets more difficult to extract the oil - the oil at the bottom of the well is thicker and less pure as heavy particles settle over the centuries. Drilling technology has improved but there comes a time where each well is unviable - for instance when it requires more energy to extract the oil than the oil can produce. Between starting to extract the easy oil and this final stage there is a plateau of maximum extraction - a peak. All wells have this curve. If we add all these curves together for all the oil wells in the world we get a similar peak for the world. This is the peak oil point.
Experts differ on whether this will happen soon or has already happened. Predictions based upon geological surveys are that production cannot grow and that demand will exceed production as more and more 'undeveloped' countries join the industrial race. Any oil that can be reached will cost more to extract. All these factors together strongly suggest that we are leaving the era of cheap oil.
Oil is not just in our cars and heating systems: we use a lot of it to grow food (to run tractors and make fertilisers and other agricultural chemicals) and it makes many of our textlies and medicines, water pipes, carrier bags .... the list is endless. Given that our culture has progressed on the back of oil since the 1950s, it seems reasonable to suggest that fundamental changes will result from passing this 'peak oil' point in our history - and the current economic turmoil is being made worse by rising energy costs...
Climate Change
In a paper called "On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air upon the Temperature of the Ground" published in 1896, Professor Svante Arrhenius started the whole controversy about climate change. Since then the arguments have gone on and on.
But even if you think that there is still any doubt about the existence or causes of climate change, the fact that there is some risk of damage to the global climate, and the horrendous consequences if it happens, makes it sensible to do what we can to reduce the possibilities. After all, the chances of your house burning down are very small - but you do everything you can to prevent it, fit and maintain smoke alarms and take out insurance if you can afford it.
The last decade has seen records in weather - hotter, wetter, windier, earlier. A glance at the official recorded statistics show that there is a massive amount of extra energy in the atmosphere. Predictions are that this is likely to increase resulting in even more extremes with hurricanes, torrents, droughts, floods and all that this will entail. It does not take much to imagine what this will mean for us all.

 


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